Historic Verdict: Jair Bolsonaro Convicted for Coup Attempt in Brazil

A Landmark Ruling in Brazilian Politics

In a groundbreaking decision, the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court, the nation's highest judicial body, convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro on September 11 for his role in an attempted coup following his electoral defeat to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October 2022. After an extensive trial, the court sentenced Bolsonaro to 27 years and three months in prison, a penalty that underscores the seriousness of his actions. Alongside him, six senior military officials, including three generals, were also found guilty. Given Bolsonaro's age and health issues at 70, there is potential for his sentence to be modified.

This ruling is unprecedented in Brazil's political landscape, marking the first time an attempted coup has led to a conviction. The decision was particularly significant as it was delivered by Judge Cármen Lúcia, the only woman on the five-member panel, especially poignant given Bolsonaro's history of misogynistic remarks.

Despite calls from Bolsonaro's supporters for an amnesty law, this ruling sends a strong message: democracy is preserved through elections, not by undermining institutions. The historical context of this judgment is crucial; Brazil endured a military dictatorship from 1964 to 1985, characterized by repression and violence, with no accountability for the perpetrators. The restoration of civilian governance in the 1980s was overshadowed by Bolsonaro's presidency, which re-empowered the military.

Bolsonaro's conviction has ramifications that extend beyond Brazil. During his presidency, he closely allied with former US President Donald Trump, who labeled the trial a 'witch hunt' and retaliated with tariffs on Brazilian imports. Following the verdict, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemned the ruling as 'political persecution,' a term often used by far-right factions to undermine judicial decisions. Rubio's threats of further action could inadvertently push Brazil closer to China, a scenario the US would prefer to avoid.

Looking ahead to Brazil's 2026 presidential election, Bolsonaro's ability to participate hinges on whether he can overturn his conviction and the accompanying election ban. While Lula has not yet declared his candidacy, he is expected to be a leading contender. A potential runoff against Tarcísio de Freitas, a right-wing candidate viewed as Bolsonaro's political successor, could be fiercely competitive. Bolsonaro's conviction may also elevate him to martyr status among his supporters, as evidenced by a rally of approximately 40,000 of his followers in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo just days before the verdict. Nevertheless, the Supreme Court's ruling is a strong affirmation that, despite ongoing political divisions, the threat to Brazil's democratic framework has been significantly diminished.

This situation contrasts sharply with the United States, where accountability for undermining democracy remains elusive. While Brazil has held a former leader responsible for his actions, Trump has avoided prosecution despite his attempts to overturn the 2020 election results, which he falsely claimed were fraudulent. The January 6, 2021, Capitol riot, a significant attack on American democracy, resulted in pardons for many involved rather than accountability.

The September 11 ruling in Brazil is not the conclusion but rather the start of a new chapter. The nation continues to grapple with deep political polarization, reflecting similar challenges faced by the US and other democracies, including India. The resilience demonstrated by Brazil's judiciary is commendable, affirming that the Brazilian justice system remains steadfast and resolute.